Analysis
Fri 5/18/12
Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.
Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.
Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:
Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average
Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Short Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is up from previous bar, price is above the fast moving average, price is above the slow moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.
Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Long Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: price is above the fast moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.
Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be declining, as evidenced by a decreasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market is in overbought territory.
Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.
Momentum Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-10.91) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an oversold market. However the market may continue to become more oversold. Look for evidenced strength before interpreting any bullishness here.
Rate of change Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-2.01) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market. However the market may continue to become more oversold. Look for evidenced strength before interpreting any bullishness here.
Comm Channel Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-75.08) has crossed back into the neutral region, issuing a signal to liquidate short positions and return to the sidelines. The range from -100.00 to 100.00 indicates a neutral market.
Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-75.08) is currently short. The current short position will be reversed when the CCI crosses above zero.
ADX Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. ADX has turned down, indicating a deterioration in the current downtrend. Look for the market to get a bit choppy here as the market attempts to establish a new trend.
DMI Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.
Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory. The ADX has turned downward indicating diminishing confidence in the current trend. Consider liquidating any bearish positions here.
RSI Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 33.34). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.
Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 33.34). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.
MACD Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.
Open Interest Indicator: No open interest value in the database for this bar. Note: Open interest not available for all data types.
Volume Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.
Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.
Stochastic - Fast Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend looks a little bottomy. The fact that the last two bars of SlowK are up and we are trading in a low area of the stochastic is a little bullish short term. A possible short term up move may occur.
Stochastic - Slow Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 15.90); this indicates a possible market rise is coming. The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.
Swing Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.
Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.
Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice. | 
