Analysis
Wed 2/22/12
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.
Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be declining, as evidenced by a decreasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market appears oversold, but may continue to become more oversold before reversing. Look for some price strength before taking any bullish positions based on this indicator.
Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:
Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average
Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.
Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.
Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.
Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.
Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.
RSI Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 36.12). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.
Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 36.12). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.
Stochastic - Fast Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 0.99; this indicates a possible market rise is coming.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. SlowK is showing the market is oversold. Look for a bottom soon.
Stochastic - Slow Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 10.40); this indicates a possible market rise is coming.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is down. SlowK is showing the market is oversold. Look for a bottom soon.
Swing Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.
Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.
Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.
Volume Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.
Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.
ADX Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is rising.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. And, ADX has turned up, indicating a strengthening in the current upward trend. A good advance is possible from here.
Comm Channel Index Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-130.38) has crossed into the bearish region, issuing a sell short signal. CCI will signal liquidation of this position when the CCI value crosses back into the neutral center region.
Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-130.38) is currently short. The current short position will be reversed when the CCI crosses above zero.
DMI Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: DMI signals a bearish trade when the DMI+crosses below the DMI-, as it has here.
Additional Analysis: DMI has signaled a bearish trade and the ADX is rising. A good downside move from here is possible.
MACD Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory.
Momentum Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-5.53) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is in bearish territory.
Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.
Rate of change Indicator:
Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-5.76) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.
Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is in bearish territory.
Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice. | 
